Polls
What polls say, and how far to trust them.
The presidential race
As of 5 October 2026, OpenPolls has not found a published poll of the presidential race that names INEC's final candidates and describes a random sample of voters.
Which party people say they would vote for
Two waves from the same pollster, shown separately. Neither describes a random sample, so they show the views of the people interviewed, not necessarily of all voters.
- SBM IntelligenceNot a random sample
SBM Voter Sentiment Tracker, Wave 1
- Fieldwork
- Third week of May 2026
- Published
- 11 Jun 2026
- Sample
- 829
- Who
- Eligible voters in 8 states and the FCT, all six geopolitical zones
- How
- Face-to-face
- Margin of error
- Not published
Sampling: Interviews in markets, schools, viewing centres and hotels; no random sampling described
- NDC57.4%
- APC11.3%
- ADC10.3%
- Undecided11.3%
Party preference, not candidates. Respondents were approached in public places, so the sample is not designed to represent all voters. No margin of error published.
- SBM IntelligenceNot a random sample
SBM Voter Sentiment Tracker, Wave 2
- Fieldwork
- September 2026
- Published
- 21 Sept 2026
- Sample
- 1,103
- Who
- Respondents in 12 states and the FCT, all six geopolitical zones
- How
- Not stated
- Margin of error
- Not published
Sampling: Not stated
- NDC42.2%
- APC25.5%
Only the two leading parties' shares are published in the free summary. Sampling method not stated; Wave 1 used street interviews.
Approval of the government
Different pollsters ask different questions of different people, so each is shown on its own.
Approval of the federal government's performance
Bars run from 0 to 100%. Months without a published figure are left out, so gaps in time are not shown as changes. NOIPolls does not publish sample size, method or margin of error with these monthly figures.
- Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA)Random sample described
President Tinubu third-year approval survey
- Fieldwork
- Not stated
- Published
- 29 May 2026
- Sample
- Not published
- Who
- Nigerians, nationwide
- How
- Telephone, in respondents' preferred languages
- Margin of error
- Not published
Sampling: Proportionate stratified random sampling across the six geopolitical zones
- Approve30.2%
- Disapprove47.5%
Sample size, fieldwork dates and margin of error not published.
- Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA)Random sample described
President Tinubu mid-term approval poll
- Fieldwork
- 4–10 July 2025
- Published
- 19 Jul 2025
- Sample
- Not published
- Who
- The Nigerian voting public
- How
- Telephone, in respondents' preferred languages
- Margin of error
- ±3% at 95% confidence
Sampling: Proportionate, stratified random sampling
Question: “Do you approve or disapprove of President Tinubu's performance?”
- Approve37.2%
- Disapprove43.4%
- Neutral12.2%
- Declined to respond7.2%
Sample size not published.
Turnout and trust
- Yiaga AfricaRandom sample described
National Voting Intentions Survey, Round 1
- Fieldwork
- 1–5 December 2025
- Published
- 30 Dec 2025
- Sample
- 1,500
- Who
- Adult Nigerians 18+, all states and the FCT
- How
- Not stated
- Margin of error
- ±4.26% at 95% confidence
Sampling: Stratified random sampling, weighted to census demographics · Funded by: Yiaga Africa
- Likely or very likely to vote in 202777%
- Confident in INEC45%
- Not confident in INEC34%
Turnout intention and confidence in INEC; no party or candidate preference published.
- Africa Polling Institute (API)Random sample described
Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey 2025
- Fieldwork
- January–February 2025
- Published
- 7 Jul 2025
- Sample
- 5,465
- Who
- Citizens aged 15 and over
- How
- Face-to-face household interviews
- Margin of error
- Not published
Sampling: Stratified random sampling with quotas by state and senatorial district · Funded by: Ford Foundation (support)
- Little or no trust in the Tinubu government83%
Includes people aged 15–17, who cannot vote.
Last updated 5 Oct 2026.